The campaign was concluded at this point. Although the Mahdists still hold a few towns in the west and south, their spirit and manpower is broken. On the other hand, the serious casualties suffered by Graham will limit his offensive capabilities until Herbert Stewart and John McNeill are able to bring their forces to bear on Kassala and the Western Sudan. By then, a General Election and growing Russian pressure on Afghanistan will justify the withdrawal of British forces from the region.
The most likely outcome, therefore, is that Graham will leave Tewfiq Bey to garrison El Obeid with his Sudanese and withdraw most of the remaining British forces via Suakin and Wadi Halfa. The Sirdar, Evelyn Wood, ably assisted by Gordon, Hicks and Baker, will reform and reinforce the Egyptian army of occupation. This should be capable of retaining control on most of the currently occupied territory.
The Mahdi (and his successors) will remain an irritant to the Anglo-Egyptian rulers of the Sudan for many years, launching raids as far north as Jebelein from their strongholds in the south, while Osman Digna does the same in the East (when he’s not trading with the authorities). Otherwise, the region will remain at peace. A later expedition (in 1898?) to finally quell the rebellion remains a distinct possibility.
Back home, Gladstone will fight (and lose) the 1885 election. General Gordon will clash with Sir Evelyn Wood, return home, stand and win a seat as an independent MP in the election (as which he will be singularly ineffective, dying of liver failure in 1889). General Wolseley will linger on in a bath chair until 1891, until eventually dying, largely forgotten, from complications associated with the wounds suffered in the relief of Khartoum. Lord Roberts of Khandahar will become the pre-eminent General of the Victorian age. General Buller will become another ‘has-been’ (so who commands in South Africa in 1898?) while Stewart, Moncrieff, Sartorius and the other casualties will be as well known as they are today!
But what of the other protagonists? Burnaby survived the campaign. Baker (despite some reverses) can claim credit for the relief of Berber and Abu Hamed (unless Hicks, another non-historical survivor, beats him to it!). Maybe his daughter survives to marry Major Kitchener? Graham has covered himself in (rather bloody) glory. What happens to them next?
Hope to see you in South Africa in 1879?!
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